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You are here: Home » Latest Issue » Volume 15, 2020 - Number 2 » DEPENDENCE OF THE CROP YIELDS OF MAIZE, WHEAT, BARLEY AND RYE ON TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN HUNGARY, Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, August 2020, Vol. 15, No. 2, p. 359 – 368; Doi:10.26471/cjees/2020/015/136


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Lili CZIBOLYA1, László MAKRA1*, Zsolt PINKE2, József HORVÁTH1 & Zoltán CSÉPE1
1Institute of Economics and Rural Development, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Szeged, HU-6800 Hódmezővásárhely, Andrássy út 15, Hungary, E-mail: czibolyalili@gmail.com; makra.laszlo@mgk.u-szeged.hu; horvath.jozsef@mgk.u-szeged.hu; csepe.zoltan@gmail.com;
2Eötvös Loránd University, Department of Physical Geography, H-1117, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, Budapest, Hungary E-mail: pinkezsolt@gmail.com;


DEPENDENCE OF THE CROP YIELDS OF MAIZE, WHEAT, BARLEY AND RYE ON TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN HUNGARY, Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, August 2020, Vol. 15, No. 2, p. 359 – 368; Doi:10.26471/cjees/2020/015/136

Full text

Abstract:

Temperature and precipitation are the most important meteorological variables influencing crop yields of cereals. In the paper we use and compare two procedures, namely Factor analysis with special transformation and multiple linear regression analysis with stepwise method in determining the influence of monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation amounts of April, May, June, July and August for determining the crop yields of maize, wheat, barley and rye. When comparing the results received on the two methods, those variables were retained that were concurrently significant for determining the crop yields for both cases. It is found that for maize yield the most important variables in decreasing order are August mean temperature with negative, as well as July and June precipitation amounts with positive association. For wheat yield, June and May mean temperatures, while for barley yield the same but in reverse order are the most important variables, all with negative relationship. Concerning rye yield, April precipitation amount with positive and June mean temperature with negative association are the decisive variables. Among the examined cereals, maize yield is the most sensitive to precipitation. The here-mentioned significant relationships may have a predictive power in projecting the actual crop yield.



Keyword: climate change, environmental factors, agriculture, cereals, food consumption


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