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Abstract:

Climate change is the most important challenge in the world because it impacts the environment. This study assessed the effects of climate change on bio-climatic constraints and land capability classes in a semi-arid region, the Miandoab Plain (West Azerbaijan Province, Iran), using Terraza and Cervatana models. After assessing for bioclimatic deficiency using the Terraza model, the Cervatana model was applied to separate the best agricultural lands from marginal ones. Three climatic eras were selected: 1) present, 2) short-term future (after 35 years), and 3) long-term future (after 65 years). Morphological and analytical data were collected from 35 representative soil profiles in the Miandoab Plain. After assessing the bioclimatic deficiency conditions, the land capability for wheat, alfalfa, and sugar beets was then evaluated. Results revealed that the study area is not capable of growing sugar beets and alfalfa, but it is capable of growing wheat under rainfed conditions. The Terraza model results showed a positive response to climate change but with a reduction in yield for wheat and sugar beets in the future. In the next step, and based on the results from the Cervatana model, approximately 89.9% of the study area was classified as moderately suitable land (S3b and S3lb), while 10.1% was classified as unsuitable land (Nl) due to soil salinity and bioclimatic deficiency limitations. The results were integrated with a geographic information system (GIS) to manipulate and prepare georeferenced thematic maps.