Ljiljana GAVRILOVIĆ¹, Ana MILANOVIĆ PEŠIĆ² & Marko UROŠEV^2
1Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Studentski trg 3/3, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia;
e-mail: gavriloviclj@yahoo.com
²Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić”, Serbian Academy of Science and Arts, Đure Jakšić Street 9/3,
11000 Belgrade, Serbia; e-mail: a.milanovic@gi.sanu.ac.rs & m.urosev@gi.sanu.ac.rs

A HYDROLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF THE GREATEST FLOODS IN SERBIA IN THE 1960 – 2010 PERIOD

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In this article we analyzed the greatest floods in Serbia between 1960 and 2010. The probability of flood occurrence was calculated for 21 hydrological observation stations on major rivers (Danube, Sava, Tisza, Tamiš and Velika Morava) in whose valleys great floods were recorded in the observed period. By means of probability theory and mathematical statistics, analyses of time series of maximum discharges and water levels were made and the theoretical functions of the distribution of high water occurrence were obtained. The probability of flood occurrence was calculated on the basis of these data. Most often the Log-Pearson Type 3 and Pearson Type 3 distribution showed the best agreement with the empirical distribution function. The results have shown that the greatest floods in the majority of watercourses were recorded in 1965 and 2006 and return periods longer than 100 years were observed on the Vlasina River near Vlasotince (168 years), on the Velika Morava near Varvarin (132 years) and the Danube near Bezdan (116 years) and Veliko Gradište (108 years). The analysis of floods shows that they mostly occur in late spring or early summer, in the periods of frequent cyclones.